Treaty United vs Cork City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Treaty United and 1.90 for Cork City, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Cork City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cork City win

61.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.88 – 1.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Treaty United home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cork City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cork City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 17% / 22% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Treaty United and 1.90 for Cork City, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Treaty United win17%

Draw22%

Cork City win61%

Double chance 1X

39%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

83%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

0–111.8%
0–211.2%
1–110.4%
1–29.9%
0–37.1%

Recent form

Treaty United

2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Athlone Town · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T19:15:00.000Z · H vs UCD · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Finn Harps · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bray Wanderers · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Longford Town · 2-0 (W)

Cork City

2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wexford · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Treaty United · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kerry · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Athlone Town · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Finn Harps · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cork City	36	23	6	7	39	75
2	UCD	36	16	8	12	16	56
3	Bray Wanderers	36	15	9	12	14	54
4	Kerry FC	36	14	10	12	4	52
5	Longford Town	36	14	10	12	3	52
6	Cobh Ramblers	36	14	7	15	-8	49
7	Athlone Town	36	13	9	14	-1	48
8	Wexford	36	11	9	16	-14	42
9	Treaty United	36	11	9	16	-16	42
10	Finn Harps	36	7	7	22	-37	28

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cork City win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.