Trefelin vs Ammanford AFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Trefelin and 1.23 for Ammanford AFC, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Trefelin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Trefelin home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ammanford AFC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trefelin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Trefelin and 1.23 for Ammanford AFC, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Trefelin win40%

Draw26%

Ammanford AFC win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–010.1%
0–19.1%
2–18.6%
1–27.7%

Recent form

Trefelin

2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff MET · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Airbus UK · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs The New Saints · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Briton Ferry · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cambrian & Clydach · 0-4 (L)

Ammanford AFC

2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cambrian & Clydach · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Holywell · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Flint Town United · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Penybont · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Barry Town · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	The New Saints	13	12	1	0	38	37
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	13	10	1	2	21	31
3	Penybont	13	9	3	1	14	30
4	Caernarfon Town	13	8	2	3	22	26
5	Colwyn Bay	13	8	1	4	7	25
6	Barry Town	13	8	1	4	5	25
7	Cardiff MET	13	6	3	4	8	21
8	Airbus UK	13	7	0	6	7	21
9	Cambrian & Clydach	13	5	3	5	-12	18
10	Llandudno	13	5	1	7	-1	16
11	Briton Ferry	13	3	3	7	-10	12
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	13	3	1	9	-11	10
13	Ammanford AFC	13	2	3	8	-22	9
14	Flint Town United	13	2	2	9	-13	8
15	Trefelin	13	1	3	9	-23	6
16	Holywell	13	0	2	11	-30	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.