Ynys Park · Referee D. Morgan · Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Trefelin vs Caernarfon Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Trefelin and 2.40 for Caernarfon Town, a combined total of 3.24. That distribution gives Caernarfon Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Caernarfon Town win
71.9% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 2.40
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trefelin home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caernarfon Town away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caernarfon Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 11% / 17% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.84 goals for Trefelin and 2.40 for Caernarfon Town, a combined 3.24 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–39.0%
- 1–17.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.62 | 57.6% | 59.4% | 1.68 | +1.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 3.45 | 26.4% | 28.1% | 3.56 | +1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 50.4% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 8.40 | 10.9% | 11.3% | 8.85 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 1.28 | 71.5% | 71.9% | 1.39 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.48 | 62.8% | 62.8% | 1.59 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.50 | 37.2% | 37.2% | 2.69 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.02 | 89.3% | 88.7% | 1.13 | -0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.20 | 17.6% | 16.8% | 5.95 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.08 | 84.3% | 83.2% | 1.20 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.83 | 49.6% | 48.4% | 2.07 | -1.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.20 | 42.4% | 40.6% | 2.46 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Trefelin
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff MET · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Airbus UK · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs The New Saints · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Briton Ferry · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cambrian & Clydach · 0-4 (L)
Caernarfon Town
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cambrian & Clydach · 9-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Llandudno · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ammanford AFC · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Flint Town United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs The New Saints · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 37 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 31 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 26 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Ammanford AFC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -22 | 9 |
| 14 | Flint Town United | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -23 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Caernarfon Town win, at 71.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.