· Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Trefelin vs Llantwit Major Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Trefelin and 1.30 for Llantwit Major, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Trefelin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Trefelin win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trefelin home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Llantwit Major away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trefelin to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Trefelin and 1.30 for Llantwit Major, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
Trefelin
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff MET · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Airbus UK · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs The New Saints · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Briton Ferry · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cambrian & Clydach · 0-4 (L)
Llantwit Major
- 2026-10-06T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Pontypridd Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Carmarthen Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs llanelli AFC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Treowen Stars · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Aberystwyth Town · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Trefelin win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.