Trelleborg vs Lund Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.12 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.30 for Lund, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives Trelleborg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Trelleborg win

56.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.12 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Trelleborg home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lund away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trelleborg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.12 goals for Trelleborg and 1.30 for Lund, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Trelleborg win56%

Draw21%

Lund win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

2–19.5%
1–19.0%
2–07.3%
1–06.9%
3–16.7%

Recent form

Trelleborg

2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kristianstad · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Angelholms FF · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tvååker · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosengård · 4-3 (W)

Lund

2026-08-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Malmo · 5-2 (W)
2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hässleholms IF · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Skövde AIK · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trelleborg · 2-2 (D)
2026-06-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skövde AIK · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ettan - Södra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Trelleborg	27	18	6	3	31	60
2	Hässleholms IF	27	16	3	8	18	51
3	Atvidabergs FF	27	13	8	6	13	47
4	Lund	27	12	8	7	16	44
5	AFC Malmo	27	12	8	7	11	44
6	Rosengård	27	10	10	7	4	40
7	Trollhättan	27	10	8	9	2	38
8	Jonkopings Sodra	27	10	6	11	3	36
9	Olympic	27	11	3	13	1	36
10	Tvååker	27	9	8	10	-6	35
11	Skövde AIK	27	8	10	9	-9	34
12	Eskilsminne	27	9	6	12	-9	33
13	Kristianstad	27	8	6	13	-8	30
14	Laholm	27	8	5	14	-10	29
15	Angelholms FF	27	5	9	13	-15	24
16	Utsikten	27	2	6	19	-42	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Trelleborg win, at 56.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.