· Analysis updated 21:42 UTC
Trem vs America-RN Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Trem and 1.31 for America-RN, a combined total of 2.24. That distribution gives America-RN the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
America-RN win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
0.94 – 1.31
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
America-RN away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates America-RN to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 27% / 28% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Trem and 1.31 for America-RN, a combined 2.24 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 44%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.9%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.6%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–29.1%
Recent form
Trem
America-RN
- 2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gama · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Gama · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Trem · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Trem · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-06-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense PI · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is America-RN win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.