Štadión Oddychové centrum · Analysis updated 07:37 UTC
Trenčianske Stankovce vs Nové Mesto nad Váhom Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.56 expected goals for Trenčianske Stankovce and 1.22 for Nové Mesto nad Váhom, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Trenčianske Stankovce the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Trenčianske Stankovce win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
2.56 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trenčianske Stankovce home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nové Mesto nad Váhom away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trenčianske Stankovce to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 17% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.56 goals for Trenčianske Stankovce and 1.22 for Nové Mesto nad Váhom, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–17.1%
- 3–06.4%
Recent form
Trenčianske Stankovce
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Trnava · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-11-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 1-6 (L)
- 2025-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs TJ Slovan Kosecke Podhradie · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-08-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Družstevník Opatová · 4-0 (W)
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Skalica · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs TJ Slovan Kosecke Podhradie · 2-5 (L)
- 2024-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Trencin · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trenčianske Stankovce · 2-2 (D)
- 2024-07-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Tatran Krásno · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Trenčianske Stankovce win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.