Stadio Briamasco · Referee M. Faye · Analysis updated 09:17 UTC
Trento vs Juventus U23 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Trento and 0.65 for Juventus U23, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Trento the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Trento win
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trento home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Juventus U23 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trento to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 22% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Trento and 0.65 for Juventus U23, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.5%
- 2–014.0%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Trento
- 2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Folgore Caratese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcione · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pergolettese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 4-0 (W)
Juventus U23
- 2026-10-25T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Trento · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Renate · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lumezzane · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Desenzano Calvina · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2022-12-23T11:30:00.000Z · Trento 2-1 Juventus U23 (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2022-09-03T15:30:00.000Z · Trento 0-2 Juventus U23 (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2022-04-16T12:30:00.000Z · Trento 1-1 Juventus U23 (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2021-12-12T13:30:00.000Z · Trento 1-2 Juventus U23 (Serie C - Girone A)
Serie C - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | Trento | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Union Brescia | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Treviso | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Ospitaletto | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | Pergolettese | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Alcione | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Lecco | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Albinoleffe | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Desenzano Calvina | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Lumezzane | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Athletic Carpi | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | PRO Vercelli | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 |
| 15 | Giana Erminio | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Novara | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 18 | Juventus U23 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 19 | Folgore Caratese | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 20 | Renate | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Trento win, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.