Stadio Briamasco · Referee M. Costa · Analysis updated 14:01 UTC
Trento vs PRO Vercelli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Trento and 0.78 for PRO Vercelli, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Trento the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Trento win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trento home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PRO Vercelli away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 57.1% vs market 45.9%, edge +11.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 45.9% | 57.1% | 1.75 | +11.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 43.6% | 43.8% | 2.28 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.80 | 18.4% | 18.5% | 5.41 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.3% | 25.3% | 3.95 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 81.5% | 81.4% | 1.23 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 56.3% | 56.1% | 1.78 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 74.6% | 1.34 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.1% | 42.9% | 2.33 | -11.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Trento
- 2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Folgore Caratese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcione · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pergolettese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 4-0 (W)
PRO Vercelli
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Carpi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Giana Erminio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Trento · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Alcione · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Treviso · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · Trento 4-0 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2026-02-22T13:30:00.000Z · Trento 3-1 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2025-10-13T18:30:00.000Z · Trento 1-0 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2025-03-01T16:30:00.000Z · Trento 0-0 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2024-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · Trento 1-0 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2024-04-13T16:30:00.000Z · Trento 1-0 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2023-12-08T13:00:00.000Z · Trento 0-2 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2023-01-08T13:30:00.000Z · Trento 2-1 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2022-09-10T15:30:00.000Z · Trento 4-1 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2022-01-29T14:00:00.000Z · Trento 0-0 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
Serie C - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Trento | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Union Brescia | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Ospitaletto | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Treviso | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Alcione | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Pergolettese | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Lecco | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Albinoleffe | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Desenzano Calvina | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | Lumezzane | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Novara | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | Juventus U23 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Athletic Carpi | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | PRO Vercelli | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 | Giana Erminio | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 19 | Folgore Caratese | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 20 | Renate | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Trento win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.