Trepça'89 vs Vëllaznimi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Trepça'89 and 0.95 for Vëllaznimi, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Trepça'89 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

72.8% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Trepça'89 home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vëllaznimi away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trepça'89 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 28% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Trepça'89 and 0.95 for Vëllaznimi, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Trepça'89 win45%

Draw28%

Vëllaznimi win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.7%
1–113.0%
0–010.5%
0–110.0%
2–08.9%

Recent form

Trepça'89

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs 2 Korriku · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vëllaznimi · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Istogu · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vjosa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rilindja 1974 · 1-1 (D)

Vëllaznimi

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vjosa · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trepça'89 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferizaj · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Liria Prizren · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina e Re · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Trepça'89 1-1 Vëllaznimi (Liga E Pare)
2026-03-15T12:00:00.000Z · Trepça'89 0-0 Vëllaznimi (Liga E Pare)
2025-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · Trepça'89 1-1 Vëllaznimi (Liga E Pare)
2020-12-17T11:30:00.000Z · Trepça'89 3-1 Vëllaznimi (Cup)

Liga E Pare table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dinamo Ferizaj	9	5	4	0	12	19
2	Prishtina e Re	9	6	0	3	6	18
3	Liria Prizren	8	5	2	1	5	17
4	Rilindja 1974	9	5	2	2	4	17
5	Trepça'89	9	4	4	1	5	16
6	Suhareka	9	3	4	2	5	13
7	Ferizaj	9	3	4	2	5	13
8	Istogu	9	4	1	4	-4	13
9	2 Korriku	9	3	3	3	1	12
10	FC Besa Peja	9	3	2	4	0	11
11	Trepça Mitrovicë	9	3	2	4	-7	11
12	Vjosa	9	2	4	3	1	10
13	Vëllaznimi	9	3	1	5	-7	10
14	Kika	9	1	6	2	-4	9
15	Ramiz Sadiku	9	1	5	3	-4	8
16	KF Lepenci	9	1	5	3	-4	8
17	Mitrovica	8	0	4	4	-7	4
18	Tefik Canga	9	0	3	6	-7	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.