· Analysis updated 15:53 UTC
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Trethomas Bluebirds and 1.76 for Caerau (Ely), a combined total of 4.06. That distribution gives Trethomas Bluebirds the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Trethomas Bluebirds win
50.1% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trethomas Bluebirds home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caerau (Ely) away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trethomas Bluebirds to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 20% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Trethomas Bluebirds and 1.76 for Caerau (Ely), a combined 4.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–17.0%
- 1–26.2%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Trethomas Bluebirds
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Pontardawe Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ynyshir Albions · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Caerphilly Athletic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-31T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Carmarthen Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Afan Lido · 5-2 (W)
Caerau (Ely)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Aberystwyth Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Afan Lido · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff Draconians · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs llanelli AFC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Treowen Stars · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FAW Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Caerphilly Athletic | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | Llantwit Major | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 11 |
| 13 | Pontardawe Town | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Newport City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| 15 | Cardiff Draconians | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -27 | 2 |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 30 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 3 | Porthmadog | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Caersws | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Llanuwchllyn | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 11 | Rhyl | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Holyhead Hotspur | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 9 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Trethomas Bluebirds win, at 50.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.