· Analysis updated 18:56 UTC
Tricolorul Breaza vs Valenii de Munte Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Tricolorul Breaza and 2.48 for Valenii de Munte, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Valenii de Munte the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Valenii de Munte win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 2.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tricolorul Breaza home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Valenii de Munte away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valenii de Munte to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 25% / 19% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Tricolorul Breaza and 2.48 for Valenii de Munte, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.3%
- 1–36.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–16.7%
- 2–35.5%
Recent form
Tricolorul Breaza
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Baicoi · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Carpati Covasna · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs ARO Muscelul Câmpulung · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ACS Mediaş 2022 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Corona Braşov · 0-0 (D)
Valenii de Munte
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Săcele · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tricolorul Breaza · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carpati Covasna · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs ARO Muscelul Câmpulung · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ACS Mediaş 2022 · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corona Braşov | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 26 |
| 2 | ACS Mediaş 2022 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Baicoi | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpic Zărneşti | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 19 |
| 5 | Inter Sibiu | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 18 |
| 6 | Sepsi II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Săcele | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | ARO Muscelul Câmpulung | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Valenii de Munte | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Tricolorul Breaza | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
| 11 | Kids Tâmpa Braşov | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -15 | 3 |
| 12 | Carpati Covasna | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Valenii de Munte win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.