Sportanlage Leitawis · Analysis updated 00:06 UTC
Triesenberg II vs Triesen II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for Triesenberg II and 2.30 for Triesen II, a combined total of 4.17. That distribution gives Triesen II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Triesen II win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.87 – 2.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Triesen II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 32% / 20% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for Triesenberg II and 2.30 for Triesen II, a combined 4.17 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 76%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 48% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.7%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.7%
- 2–16.2%
- 1–35.9%
Recent form
Triesenberg II
Triesen II
- 2026-09-02T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Vaduz III · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-09-17T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Balzers · 0-4 (L)
- 2024-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Triesenberg II · 2-3 (L)
- 2023-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Triesenberg · 0-8 (L)
- 2022-08-31T18:15:00.000Z · H vs FC Vaduz · 0-18 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vaduz II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 |
| 2 | Balzers II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 3 | Ruggell II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 4 | Schaan II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 5 | Triesenberg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Triesen II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Schaan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 8 | Vaduz III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | Eschen / Mauren II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 10 | Ruggell III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 11 | Eschen / Mauren III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 12 | Balzers III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 13 | Triesenberg II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 14 | Triesen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Triesen II win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.