Triglav vs Primorje Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Triglav and 0.55 for Primorje, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Triglav the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Triglav win

73.3% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.09 – 0.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Triglav home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Primorje away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Triglav to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 18% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Triglav and 0.55 for Primorje, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Triglav win73%

Draw18%

Primorje win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

27%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

2–015.5%
1–014.9%
3–010.8%
2–18.6%
1–18.2%

Recent form

Triglav

2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Ljubljana · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brežice · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudar · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bistrica · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dravinja · 4-1 (W)

Primorje

2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Triglav · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dren Vrhnika · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Bilje · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilirija · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Krka · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. SNL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tabor Sežana	11	9	1	1	15	28
2	Beltinci	11	8	1	2	17	25
3	Triglav	11	8	1	2	16	25
4	Rudar	11	6	0	5	4	18
5	Bilje	11	6	0	5	-2	18
6	Jesenice	11	5	2	4	3	17
7	Bistrica	11	5	2	4	-1	17
8	Slovan Ljubljana	11	5	2	4	-4	17
9	Ilirija	11	5	1	5	5	16
10	Dekani	11	4	3	4	0	15
11	Dren Vrhnika	11	4	2	5	-4	14
12	Primorje	11	2	4	5	-6	10
13	Krško	11	2	3	6	-10	9
14	Dravinja	11	2	2	7	-14	8
15	Krka	11	2	1	8	-10	7
16	Brežice	11	1	3	7	-9	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Triglav win, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.