· Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Triglav vs Segesta Sisak Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Triglav and 2.25 for Segesta Sisak, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives Segesta Sisak the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Segesta Sisak win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Triglav home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Segesta Sisak away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Segesta Sisak to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 23% / 20% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Triglav and 2.25 for Segesta Sisak, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.2%
- 1–36.9%
- 0–26.6%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Triglav
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Ljubljana · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brežice · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bistrica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dravinja · 4-1 (W)
Segesta Sisak
- 2026-08-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Radenska Slatina · 18-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Orijent 1919 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dubrava Zagreb · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Krka · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Segesta Sisak win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.