Dimotiko Stadio Tríkalon · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Trikala vs Digenis Neochori Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Trikala and 0.85 for Digenis Neochori, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Trikala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Trikala win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trikala home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Digenis Neochori away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trikala to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 27% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Trikala and 0.85 for Digenis Neochori, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–010.4%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Trikala
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis Larissa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Feraios · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Larisa · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lamia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Filiates · 0-0 (D)
Digenis Neochori
- 2023-04-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trikala · 2-2 (D)
- 2023-04-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Petriti · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chalkis · 1-0 (W)
- 2023-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zakynthos · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-03-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panelefsiniakos · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anagennisi Artas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Eordaikos | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Makedonikos Siatista | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Veria | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Alexandros Florinas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Kastoria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Doxa Mascholouriou | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | PAS Giannina | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Thyella Katsikas | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Naousa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | Vatolakkos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Trikala win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.