Hasely Crawford Stadium · Analysis updated 17:53 UTC
Trinidad and Tobago vs Bermuda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for Trinidad and Tobago and 0.76 for Bermuda, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives Trinidad and Tobago the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Trinidad and Tobago win
80.5% probability
Expected goals
2.88 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trinidad and Tobago home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bermuda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trinidad and Tobago to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 13% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for Trinidad and Tobago and 0.76 for Bermuda, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.9%
- 3–010.4%
- 2–18.3%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Trinidad and Tobago
- 2026-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Dominican Republic · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T00:20:00.000Z · A vs Haiti · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Louisville City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Russia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-31T01:00:00.000Z · A vs South Korea · 0-5 (L)
Bermuda
- 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Lucia · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadeloupe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cape Verde Islands · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-25T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Congo DR · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Trinidad and Tobago · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panama | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Suriname | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Guatemala | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | El Salvador | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 1 | Curaçao | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Jamaica | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Trinidad and Tobago | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Bermuda | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -19 | 1 |
| 1 | Haiti | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Honduras | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Costa Rica | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Nicaragua | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Trinidad and Tobago win, at 80.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.