· Analysis updated 11:43 UTC
Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Tripoli SC and 0.88 for Al Ahed, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Tripoli SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tripoli SC win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Ahed away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tripoli SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 26% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Tripoli SC and 0.88 for Al Ahed, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.5%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
Recent form
Tripoli SC
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Mabarrah · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Akhaa Al Ahli · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahed · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ghazieh · 0-0 (D)
- 2024-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Sahel · 1-0 (W)
Al Ahed
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Hikma · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Mabarrah · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tripoli SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Jwaaya FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Nejmeh · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Nejmeh | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Al Ansar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Safa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Tadamon Sour | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Ahed | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Tripoli SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Al Mabarrah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Jwaaya FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Al Hikma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Reyady Abaseya | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Shabab Al Sahel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Al Akhaa Al Ahli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tripoli SC win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.