Tristan Suarez vs Atlanta Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Tristan Suarez and 0.68 for Atlanta, a combined total of 1.72. That distribution gives Tristan Suarez the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

76.8% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 0.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tristan Suarez home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlanta away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tristan Suarez to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 33% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Tristan Suarez and 0.68 for Atlanta, a combined 1.72 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Tristan Suarez win44%

Draw33%

Atlanta win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

67%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals51%

Over 2.5 goals25%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

1–018.7%
0–017.8%
1–112.6%
0–112.0%
2–09.8%

Recent form

Tristan Suarez

2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colegiales · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Quilmes · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Midland · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlanta · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martin S.J. · 0-0 (D)

Atlanta

2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Tucuman · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico DE Rafaela · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Agropecuario · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tristan Suarez · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Atlético Güemes · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera Nacional table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	33	18	8	7	9	62
2	Deportivo Moron	33	17	7	9	17	58
3	Godoy Cruz	33	16	9	8	13	57
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	14	12	8	17	54
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	14	12	8	14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	13	12	9	1	51
7	CA Estudiantes	33	13	9	11	4	48
8	Almirante Brown	34	12	12	10	4	48
9	Los Andes	33	9	13	11	1	40
10	Chaco For Ever	33	10	10	13	-2	40
11	Racing Cordoba	33	10	10	13	-9	40
12	Defensores De Belgrano	33	8	13	12	-7	37
13	San Telmo	33	9	10	14	-9	37
14	Atletico Mitre	33	7	15	11	-10	36
15	Central Norte	33	6	16	11	-9	34
16	All Boys	33	6	16	11	-10	34
17	Acassuso	34	8	9	17	-10	33
18	San Miguel	34	6	14	14	-14	32
1	Tristan Suarez	34	16	14	4	18	62
2	Temperley	33	16	11	6	13	59
3	Atlanta	34	18	4	12	7	58
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	33	15	10	8	8	55
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	14	10	10	6	52
6	Midland	33	14	9	10	12	51
7	Colegiales	34	14	8	12	4	50
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	13	9	12	7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	33	12	10	11	2	46
10	Atletico DE Rafaela	34	12	9	13	-6	45
11	San Martin Tucuman	33	10	13	10	2	43
12	Almagro	33	11	8	14	-9	41
13	Agropecuario	34	10	10	14	-11	40
14	Quilmes	34	10	9	15	1	39
15	Patronato	34	7	16	11	-4	37
16	Nueva Chicago	33	9	9	15	-8	36
17	Chacarita Juniors	34	10	6	18	-9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	33	5	8	20	-33	23

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.