· Analysis updated 18:21 UTC
Tritium vs Leon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Tritium and 1.97 for Leon, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Leon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Leon win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tritium home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leon away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 20% / 22% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Tritium and 1.97 for Leon, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–36.5%
Recent form
Tritium
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chievo · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rovato Vertovese · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pavonese · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa Valle · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brusaporto · 1-2 (L)
Leon
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavonese · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Calepina · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Milano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa Valle · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Chievo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Leon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Caldiero Terme | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Piacenza | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Villa Valle | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Milan II | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Virtus Verona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Real Calepina | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Scanzorosciate | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Pavonese | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Pro Palazzolo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Brusaporto | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Rovato Vertovese | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Club Milano | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Fiorenzuola | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Tritium | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Leon win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.