Tritium vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Tritium and 1.50 for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Virtus Ciserano Bergamo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tritium home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Virtus Ciserano Bergamo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 33% / 25% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Tritium and 1.50 for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tritium win33%

Draw25%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.9%
0–19.3%
1–28.9%
1–08.0%
2–17.6%

Recent form

Tritium

2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chievo · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rovato Vertovese · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pavonese · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa Valle · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brusaporto · 1-2 (L)

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Tritium · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Leon · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nibbiano & Valtidone · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Virtus Verona · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Milano · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nibbiano & Valtidone	9	8	0	1	10	24
2	Chievo	9	6	1	2	11	19
3	Piacenza	8	4	3	1	8	15
4	Caldiero Terme	9	4	3	2	3	15
5	Leon	9	4	3	2	2	15
6	Villa Valle	9	3	5	1	4	14
7	Milan II	7	4	1	2	1	13
8	Real Calepina	9	3	3	3	0	12
9	Virtus Verona	9	3	3	3	-1	12
10	Pavonese	8	3	2	3	-3	11
11	Pro Palazzolo	9	3	2	4	-4	11
12	Scanzorosciate	9	2	4	3	-2	10
13	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	9	2	3	4	-2	9
14	Brusaporto	9	3	0	6	-5	9
15	Club Milano	9	2	2	5	-3	8
16	Rovato Vertovese	9	1	4	4	-4	7
17	Fiorenzuola	9	1	3	5	-6	6
18	Tritium	9	1	2	6	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.