· Analysis updated 17:17 UTC
Tritons Vallarta vs H2O Purepechas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Tritons Vallarta and 0.65 for H2O Purepechas, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Tritons Vallarta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
77.6% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tritons Vallarta home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
H2O Purepechas away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tritons Vallarta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 33% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Tritons Vallarta and 0.65 for H2O Purepechas, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.2%
- 0–018.3%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–111.9%
- 2–010.1%
Recent form
Tritons Vallarta
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Reboceros La Piedad · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Venados · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-22T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Venados · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Tapachula · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Tapachula · 1-0 (W)
H2O Purepechas
- 2026-10-24T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Tapachula · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lobos ULMX · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres de Alica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Cabos United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Zacatepec 1948 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Premier table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irapuato | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Racing de Veracruz | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pioneros de Cancún | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 4 | Celaya | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Reboceros La Piedad | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Tigres de Alica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Deportiva Venados | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Zacatepec 1948 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Chapulineros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Lobos ULMX | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Los Cabos United | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Montañeses | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Cordobés | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Tapachula | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | H2O Purepechas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | Tritons Vallarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 77.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.