Trnje vs Koprivnica Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.48 expected goals for Trnje and 1.02 for Koprivnica, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Trnje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Trnje win

69.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.48 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Trnje home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Koprivnica away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trnje to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 17% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.48 goals for Trnje and 1.02 for Koprivnica, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Trnje win69%

Draw17%

Koprivnica win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

2–19.5%
2–09.3%
3–17.8%
3–07.7%
1–17.6%

Recent form

Trnje

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Jarun · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Koprivnica · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bjelovar · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Zapresic · 3-0 (W)

Koprivnica

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grobničan Čavle · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Križevci · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudes · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trnje · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Slavonija Požega · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second NL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Uskok Klis	9	7	0	2	14	21
2	Dugo Selo	10	6	1	3	8	19
3	Bjelovar	10	5	3	2	9	18
4	Jarun	9	3	6	0	5	15
5	Solin	10	4	3	3	4	15
6	Slavonija Požega	10	4	3	3	3	15
7	Trnje	10	4	2	4	2	14
8	Uljanik	10	4	2	4	-3	14
9	Inter Zapresic	10	3	4	3	-1	13
10	Zagora	10	2	6	2	1	12
11	Križevci	10	3	3	4	-3	12
12	Grobničan Čavle	10	3	3	4	-6	12
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	10	3	2	5	-7	11
14	Lucko	10	2	4	4	-2	10
15	Varteks Varaždin	10	2	2	6	-9	8
16	Koprivnica	10	1	2	7	-15	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Trnje win, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.