· Analysis updated 18:08 UTC
Trnje vs Kustosija Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Trnje and 1.78 for Kustosija, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Kustosija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kustosija win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trnje home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kustosija away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 0–211.4%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Trnje
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavonija Požega · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zagora · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Uljanik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Solin · 1-3 (L)
Kustosija
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jadran LP · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Croatia Zmijavci · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Cibalia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb U21 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T15:30:00.000Z · Trnje 1-0 Kustosija (Second NL)
- 2025-11-14T13:00:00.000Z · Trnje 0-1 Kustosija (Second NL)
- 2025-02-21T14:00:00.000Z · Trnje 0-4 Kustosija (Second NL)
- 2024-08-24T15:30:00.000Z · Trnje 1-1 Kustosija (Second NL)
- 2024-03-23T14:30:00.000Z · Trnje 0-4 Kustosija (Second NL)
- 2023-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · Trnje 0-4 Kustosija (Second NL)
Second NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uskok Klis | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Dugo Selo | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Bjelovar | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Jarun | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Solin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Slavonija Požega | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Trnje | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Uljanik | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 9 | Inter Zapresic | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Zagora | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Križevci | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Grobničan Čavle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Lucko | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Varteks Varaždin | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Koprivnica | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kustosija win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.