· Analysis updated 23:27 UTC
Trofense vs Leça Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Trofense and 0.88 for Leça, a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives Trofense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.3% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trofense home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leça away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trofense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 34%, against 34% / 33% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Trofense and 0.88 for Leça, a combined 1.78 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.9%
- 1–015.3%
- 0–114.8%
- 1–113.3%
- 2–06.9%
Recent form
Trofense
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Leça · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guimaraes B · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Varzim · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs São João Ver · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vianense · 0-2 (L)
Leça
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mortágua · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trofense · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fafe · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guimaraes B · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2021-01-15T20:30:00.000Z · Trofense 0-1 Leça (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2020-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · Trofense 0-0 Leça (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2020-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Trofense 2-3 Leça (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2019-10-27T14:00:00.000Z · Trofense 0-0 Leça (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | Leça | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Vianense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Caldas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Fafe | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 6 | Louletano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Guimaraes B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | São João Ver | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.