· Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Trollhättan vs Stenungsund Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Trollhättan and 1.37 for Stenungsund, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Trollhättan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.4% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trollhättan home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stenungsund away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trollhättan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Trollhättan and 1.37 for Stenungsund, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.0%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
Trollhättan
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hässleholms IF · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Skövde AIK · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Utsikten · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eskilsminne · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosengård · 2-3 (L)
Stenungsund
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tord · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Karlstad II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vänersborgs FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Motala · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Herrestads · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.