Tromsø II vs Finnsnes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Tromsø II and 1.40 for Finnsnes, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Tromsø II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tromsø II win

56.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.23 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tromsø II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Finnsnes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tromsø II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Tromsø II and 1.40 for Finnsnes, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Tromsø II win56%

Draw20%

Finnsnes win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

2–19.2%
1–18.3%
3–16.8%
2–06.6%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Tromsø II

2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lillestrøm II · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Finnsnes · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Fauske Sprint · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-21T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kongsvinger II · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Skjetten · 2-3 (L)

Finnsnes

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skjervøy · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fløya · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Alta · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Strømsgodset II · 1-5 (L)
2026-08-30T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lillestrøm II · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Skedsmo	25	18	2	5	28	56
2	Fløya	25	16	3	6	34	51
3	Harstad	25	15	4	6	42	49
4	Alta	25	13	6	6	19	45
5	Finnsnes	25	12	4	9	6	40
6	Skjetten	25	11	3	11	5	36
7	Kongsvinger II	25	11	2	12	-17	35
8	Strømsgodset II	25	10	3	12	4	33
9	Lillestrøm II	25	10	1	14	16	31
10	Fauske Sprint	25	9	4	12	-25	31
11	Tromsø II	24	7	6	11	1	27
12	Skjervøy	24	8	3	13	-23	27
13	Bossekop	25	6	4	15	-37	22
14	Ulfstind	25	4	3	18	-53	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tromsø II win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.