Tromso vs Haugesund Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Tromso and 2.25 for Haugesund, a combined total of 4.75. That distribution gives Tromso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Tromso win

45.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.50 – 2.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tromso home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Haugesund away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Tromso win45%

Draw19%

Haugesund win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals85%

Over 3.5 goals70%

Both teams to score82%

Correct score

2–26.8%
2–16.1%
3–25.7%
1–25.5%
2–35.1%

Recent form

Tromso

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Fredrikstad · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ham-Kam · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alta · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosenborg · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-06T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Kristiansund BK · 0-2 (L)

Haugesund

2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strommen · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Moss · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Djerv · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sogndal · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bryne · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2025-10-26T16:00:00.000Z · Tromso 3-2 Haugesund (Eliteserien)
2025-03-30T15:00:00.000Z · Tromso 1-0 Haugesund (Eliteserien)
2024-11-10T16:00:00.000Z · Tromso 0-2 Haugesund (Eliteserien)
2024-04-14T15:00:00.000Z · Tromso 0-1 Haugesund (Eliteserien)
2023-11-26T16:00:00.000Z · Tromso 2-1 Haugesund (Eliteserien)
2023-05-29T15:00:00.000Z · Tromso 2-1 Haugesund (Eliteserien)
2023-02-25T15:00:00.000Z · Tromso 3-2 Haugesund (Friendlies Clubs)
2022-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · Tromso 1-2 Haugesund (Eliteserien)
2022-06-19T16:00:00.000Z · Tromso 1-1 Haugesund (Eliteserien)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tromso win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.