· Analysis updated 15:52 UTC
Troon FC vs Gretna 2008 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for Troon FC and 2.06 for Gretna 2008, a combined total of 4.94. That distribution gives Troon FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Troon FC win
55.2% probability
Expected goals
2.88 – 2.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Troon FC home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Troon FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 17% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for Troon FC and 2.06 for Gretna 2008, a combined 4.94 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 87% and both teams to score at 82%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.3%
- 2–16.1%
- 3–26.0%
- 3–15.9%
- 1–24.4%
Recent form
Troon FC
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Deveronvale · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kilwinning Rangers · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cumnock Juniors · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Johnstone Burgh · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newton Stewart · 5-1 (W)
Gretna 2008
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Clydebank · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cumbernauld Colts · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kilwinning Rangers · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Troon FC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Newton Stewart · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Football League - Lowland League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kilwinning Rangers | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 30 |
| 2 | Pollok | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Tranent Juniors | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Linlithgow Rose | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 25 |
| 5 | Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 25 |
| 6 | Broxburn Athletic | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Clydebank | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 23 |
| 8 | Largs Thistle | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 9 | Auchinleck Talbot | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 22 |
| 10 | Caledonian Braves | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 11 | Brechin | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 12 | Lochee United | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 20 |
| 13 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 19 |
| 14 | Johnstone Burgh | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 15 | Celtic II | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 17 |
| 16 | Cumnock Juniors | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 17 | Civil Service Strollers | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 18 | Bo'ness United | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 19 | Troon FC | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -2 | 15 |
| 20 | Cumbernauld Colts | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 21 | East Stirlingshire | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 22 | Gretna 2008 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 11 |
| 23 | Cowdenbeath | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 10 |
| 24 | Musselburgh Athletic | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 25 | Renfrew | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 26 | Beith | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 9 |
| 27 | Albion Rovers | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 8 |
| 28 | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -9 | 6 |
| 29 | Berwick Rangers | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 5 |
| 30 | Dunipace | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
| 31 | Newton Stewart | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -31 | 4 |
| 32 | Stirling University | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -17 | 3 |
| 33 | Dalbeattie Star | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -33 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Troon FC win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.