· Analysis updated 17:38 UTC
Tropezón vs Laredo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Tropezón and 1.14 for Laredo, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Tropezón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tropezón home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tropezón to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Tropezón and 1.14 for Laredo, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–110.7%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Tropezón
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Mineros · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Revilla · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Solares · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Selaya · 3-0 (W)
Laredo
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 19 |
| 2 | Laredo | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Bezana | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Revilla | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Cayón | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Vimenor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Sámano | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | Torina | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Atlético Mineros | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Castro | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Selaya | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Solares | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Atlético Albericia | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 14 | Guarnizo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Escobedo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | Barquereño | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 | Velarde | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Naval Reinosa | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.