Tropezón vs Selaya Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Tropezón and 0.64 for Selaya, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Tropezón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tropezón win

70.0% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.02 – 0.64

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Tropezón home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Selaya away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Tropezón win70%

Draw19%

Selaya win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

2–014.3%
1–014.2%
3–09.6%
2–19.1%
1–19.0%

Recent form

Tropezón

2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Mineros · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Revilla · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Solares · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Selaya · 3-0 (W)

Selaya

2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Escobedo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Albericia · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tropezón · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Castro · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Albericia · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · Tropezón 3-0 Selaya (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
2026-02-22T15:30:00.000Z · Tropezón 1-0 Selaya (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
2025-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · Tropezón 1-0 Selaya (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
2021-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · Tropezón 4-2 Selaya (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
2020-12-05T15:30:00.000Z · Tropezón 5-2 Selaya (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
2019-11-10T14:45:00.000Z · Tropezón 1-0 Selaya (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tropezón	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	Bezana	6	5	1	0	8	16
3	Laredo	6	5	0	1	12	15
4	Sámano	6	3	2	1	8	11
5	Revilla	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Cayón	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Torina	6	2	4	0	6	10
8	Vimenor	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Selaya	6	2	1	3	-3	7
10	Atlético Mineros	6	2	0	4	-8	6
11	Guarnizo	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Solares	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Castro	6	1	2	3	-4	5
14	Escobedo	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Velarde	6	1	1	4	-7	4
17	Barquereño	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tropezón win, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.