· Analysis updated 07:32 UTC
Trostianets vs Metalurh Zaporizhya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Trostianets and 0.45 for Metalurh Zaporizhya, a combined total of 1.20. That distribution gives Trostianets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 41%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 12% for over 2.5 goals and 19% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 30%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
80.1% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 0.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trostianets home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Metalurh Zaporizhya away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 39% / 41% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Trostianets and 0.45 for Metalurh Zaporizhya, a combined 1.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
59%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–030.1%
- 1–022.6%
- 0–113.6%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Trostianets
- 2026-10-06T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernihiv · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Rebel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-21T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Penuel · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Poltava 2 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Karbon Cherkasy · 0-0 (D)
Metalurh Zaporizhya
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlet · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Lozova · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Rebel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpiya Savyntsi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T09:15:00.000Z · H vs Penuel · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Druha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 1 | Karbon Cherkasy | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Lozova | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Rebel | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | Vilkhivtsi | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 4 | SC Poltava 2 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 5 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 5 | Trostianets | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Nyva Ternopil II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 6 | Atlet | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | Oleksandria II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 8 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Ruh Lviv | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 9 | Penuel | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 80.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 19% and over 2.5 goals at 12%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.