· Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Trostianets vs Oleksandria II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Trostianets and 0.65 for Oleksandria II, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Trostianets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
77.6% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trostianets home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Oleksandria II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trostianets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 33% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Trostianets and 0.65 for Oleksandria II, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.2%
- 0–018.2%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–111.9%
- 2–010.1%
Recent form
Trostianets
- 2026-10-06T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernihiv · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Rebel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-21T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Penuel · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Poltava 2 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Karbon Cherkasy · 0-0 (D)
Oleksandria II
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Karbon Cherkasy · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rebel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlet · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Penuel · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lozova · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Druha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 23 |
| 1 | Karbon Cherkasy | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 2 | Trostianets | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Lozova | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 4 | Atlet | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Vilkhivtsi | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 5 | SC Poltava 2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 6 | Nyva Ternopil II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 6 | Rebel | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | Oleksandria II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 7 |
| 8 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Ruh Lviv | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Penuel | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 77.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.