· Analysis updated 17:03 UTC
Trostianets vs Rebel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Trostianets and 1.03 for Rebel, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Trostianets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Trostianets win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trostianets home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rebel away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trostianets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Trostianets and 1.03 for Rebel, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Trostianets
- 2026-10-06T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Chernihiv · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Rebel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-21T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Penuel · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Poltava 2 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Karbon Cherkasy · 0-0 (D)
Rebel
- 2026-09-27T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Trostianets · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Oleksandria II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Penuel · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalurh Zaporizhya · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Druha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 1 | Karbon Cherkasy | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Lozova | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | SC Poltava 2 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Vilkhivtsi | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 4 | Trostianets | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 5 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 6 | Atlet | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Nyva Ternopil II | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 7 | Rebel | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 8 | Oleksandria II | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Ruh Lviv | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Penuel | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Trostianets win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.