Troszyn vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Troszyn and 3.50 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win

66.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 3.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Troszyn home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 19% / 15% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Troszyn and 3.50 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki, a combined 5.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Troszyn win19%

Draw15%

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win66%

Double chance 1X

34%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals90%

Over 3.5 goals79%

Both teams to score83%

Correct score

1–35.8%
2–35.8%
1–45.1%
2–45.1%
1–25.0%

Recent form

Troszyn

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ząbkovia Ząbki · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia II · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Płock II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mławianka Mława · 1-4 (L)

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Warta Sieradz · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wigry Suwałki · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Zambrów · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · Troszyn 1-4 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (III Liga - Group 1)

III Liga - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weszlo	14	10	2	2	14	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	14	9	4	1	17	31
3	Swit	14	8	2	4	8	26
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	14	7	3	4	7	24
5	Pelikan Łowicz	14	7	3	4	4	24
6	Wisła Płock II	14	6	4	4	4	22
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	14	6	4	4	4	22
8	Warta Sieradz	14	6	4	4	2	22
9	Olimpia Zambrów	14	6	3	5	1	21
10	Olimpia Elbląg	14	5	3	6	-3	18
11	Jagiellonia II	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Widzew II	13	4	3	6	0	15
13	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	14	4	3	7	-3	15
14	ŁKS Łódź II	14	4	3	7	-4	15
15	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	14	4	2	8	-7	14
16	Mławianka Mława	14	4	2	8	-10	14
17	Troszyn	14	2	5	7	-15	11
18	Łomża	13	0	3	10	-18	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.