· Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
Troszyn vs Łomża Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Troszyn and 2.38 for Łomża, a combined total of 4.48. That distribution gives Łomża the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Łomża win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Troszyn home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Łomża away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Łomża to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 35% / 19% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Troszyn and 2.38 for Łomża, a combined 4.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.7%
- 2–16.0%
- 1–15.7%
- 2–35.6%
Recent form
Troszyn
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mławianka Mława · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Łomża · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Weszlo · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Pelikan Łowicz · 1-1 (D)
Łomża
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swit · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ząbkovia Ząbki · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Troszyn · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jagiellonia II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ŁKS Łódź II · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 29 |
| 2 | Wigry Suwałki | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Pelikan Łowicz | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Wisła Płock II | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Swit | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Olimpia Zambrów | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia II | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 10 | Olimpia Elbląg | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Warta Sieradz | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 | ŁKS Łódź II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 13 | Widzew II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 14 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Mławianka Mława | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 | Łomża | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Łomża win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.