· Analysis updated 20:04 UTC
Troyan 2025 vs Lokomotiv Mezdra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Troyan 2025 and 2.08 for Lokomotiv Mezdra, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Lokomotiv Mezdra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lokomotiv Mezdra win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Troyan 2025 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotiv Mezdra away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokomotiv Mezdra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 21% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Troyan 2025 and 2.08 for Lokomotiv Mezdra, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–26.8%
- 0–16.6%
- 1–36.5%
Recent form
Troyan 2025
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Levski · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Yantra Polski Trambesh · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pavlikeni · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kom Berkovitsa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Mezdra · 1-4 (L)
Lokomotiv Mezdra
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bdin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevlievo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Partizan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademik Svishtov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bdin · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Troyan 2025 1-4 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
- 2025-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · Troyan 2025 0-6 Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)
Third League - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akademik Svishtov | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Mezdra | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Yantra Polski Trambesh | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Kom Berkovitsa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Partizan | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Chavdar Troyan | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Etar VT II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sevlievo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Pavlikeni | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Bdin | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | OFK Levski | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Juventus Malchika | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lokomotiv Mezdra win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.