Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas · Analysis updated 01:38 UTC
Troyes II vs Thonon Évian Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Troyes II and 1.34 for Thonon Évian, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives Troyes II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Troyes II win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Troyes II home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thonon Évian away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Troyes II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 22% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Troyes II and 1.34 for Thonon Évian, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.3%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Troyes II
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Toulon · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Andrézieux · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nimes · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Priest · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rumilly Vallières · 0-3 (L)
Thonon Évian
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jura Dolois · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Besançon · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sochaux II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Troyes II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Belfort · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 3 - Group F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Troyes II | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 51 |
| 2 | Thonon Évian | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 46 |
| 3 | Chalon | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 45 |
| 4 | Racing Besançon | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 43 |
| 5 | Jura Dolois | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 42 |
| 6 | Torcy | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 37 |
| 7 | Pontarlier | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 36 |
| 8 | Ivry | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 35 |
| 9 | Thaon | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 32 |
| 10 | Belfort | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 30 |
| 11 | Mulhouse | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -11 | 30 |
| 12 | Strasbourg II | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -20 | 28 |
| 13 | Sochaux II | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 27 |
| 14 | Besançon | 26 | 2 | 7 | 17 | -39 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Troyes II win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.