· Analysis updated 16:47 UTC
Trygg/Lade vs Hønefoss Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Trygg/Lade and 2.85 for Hønefoss, a combined total of 4.11. That distribution gives Hønefoss the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hønefoss win
70.3% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 2.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trygg/Lade home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hønefoss away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hønefoss to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 14% / 16% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Trygg/Lade and 2.85 for Hønefoss, a combined 4.11 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.4%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–26.7%
- 0–36.4%
- 1–15.9%
Recent form
Trygg/Lade
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Junkeren · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eidsvold · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Levanger · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Molde · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromsdalen Uil · 1-3 (L)
Hønefoss
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs KFUM Oslo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tromsdalen Uil · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Grorud · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trygg/Lade · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eidsvold | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 57 |
| 2 | Kjelsås | 24 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 53 |
| 3 | Levanger | 24 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 49 |
| 4 | Hønefoss | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 49 |
| 5 | Grorud | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 46 |
| 6 | Stjørdals-Blink | 24 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 36 |
| 7 | Tromsdalen Uil | 24 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 35 |
| 8 | Lørenskog | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 34 |
| 9 | Junkeren | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | -8 | 31 |
| 10 | Rana | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | -5 | 30 |
| 11 | Skeid | 24 | 7 | 2 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 12 | Follo | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | -21 | 17 |
| 13 | Ull/Kisa | 24 | 4 | 1 | 19 | -48 | 13 |
| 14 | Trygg/Lade | 24 | 2 | 4 | 18 | -30 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hønefoss win, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.