· Analysis updated 15:56 UTC
Trygg/Lade vs Junkeren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Trygg/Lade and 1.34 for Junkeren, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Trygg/Lade the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trygg/Lade home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Junkeren away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trygg/Lade to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Trygg/Lade and 1.34 for Junkeren, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–28.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.90 (model 43.3% vs market 31.4%, edge +11.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.90 | 31.4% | 43.3% | 2.31 | +11.9 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 39.3% | 40.1% | 2.49 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 64.9% | 65.3% | 1.53 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.8% | 74.8% | 1.34 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.3% | 25.2% | 3.97 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.3% | 59.9% | 1.67 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 35.4% | 34.7% | 2.88 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.33 | 68.6% | 56.7% | 1.76 | -11.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Trygg/Lade
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Junkeren · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eidsvold · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Levanger · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Molde · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromsdalen Uil · 1-3 (L)
Junkeren
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Grorud · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trygg/Lade · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ull/Kisa · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Skeid · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T12:00:00.000Z · Trygg/Lade 2-3 Junkeren (2. Division - Group 2)
- 2022-08-07T14:00:00.000Z · Trygg/Lade 0-3 Junkeren (3. Division - Girone 5)
- 2022-05-22T14:00:00.000Z · Trygg/Lade 1-3 Junkeren (3. Division - Girone 5)
2. Division - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eidsvold | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 54 |
| 2 | Kjelsås | 23 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 50 |
| 3 | Levanger | 23 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 46 |
| 4 | Hønefoss | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 46 |
| 5 | Grorud | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 46 |
| 6 | Tromsdalen Uil | 23 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 35 |
| 7 | Lørenskog | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Stjørdals-Blink | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 9 | Junkeren | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | -7 | 31 |
| 10 | Rana | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | -3 | 30 |
| 11 | Skeid | 23 | 6 | 2 | 15 | -19 | 20 |
| 12 | Follo | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -23 | 14 |
| 13 | Ull/Kisa | 23 | 4 | 1 | 18 | -44 | 13 |
| 14 | Trygg/Lade | 23 | 2 | 4 | 17 | -28 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.