· Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Trygg/Lade vs Molde Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Trygg/Lade and 2.45 for Molde, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Molde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Molde win
62.6% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trygg/Lade home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Molde away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Molde to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 19% / 18% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Trygg/Lade and 2.45 for Molde, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–17.5%
- 1–37.5%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–26.0%
Recent form
Trygg/Lade
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Junkeren · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eidsvold · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Levanger · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Molde · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromsdalen Uil · 1-3 (L)
Molde
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kristiansund BK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trygg/Lade · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ham-Kam · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs KFUM Oslo · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Molde win, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.