TSC Backa Topola vs Dubočica Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for TSC Backa Topola and 1.25 for Dubočica, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives TSC Backa Topola the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

TSC Backa Topola win

54.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

TSC Backa Topola home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dubočica away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TSC Backa Topola to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for TSC Backa Topola and 1.25 for Dubočica, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

TSC Backa Topola win55%

Draw22%

Dubočica win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–19.7%
2–19.7%
1–07.8%
2–07.8%
3–16.5%

Recent form

TSC Backa Topola

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Bor 1919 · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grafičar · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Borac Cacak · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dubočica · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftagas · 1-1 (D)

Dubočica

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Ub · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Javor · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs TSC Backa Topola · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Teleoptik · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Prva Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	TSC Backa Topola	14	8	6	0	18	30
2	Borac Cacak	14	9	2	3	7	29
3	Javor	14	7	6	1	18	27
4	Semendrija 1924	14	7	4	3	7	25
5	OFK Vršac	14	8	1	5	4	25
6	Napredak	14	6	3	5	-1	21
7	FK Vozdovac	14	5	4	5	2	19
8	Loznica	14	4	7	3	-2	19
9	Dubočica	14	5	4	5	-2	19
10	Metalac GM	14	5	3	6	-3	18
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	14	4	4	6	-6	16
12	Naftagas	14	3	6	5	4	15
13	Teleoptik	14	3	4	7	-7	13
14	Grafičar	14	3	2	9	-9	11
15	Jedinstvo Ub	14	3	2	9	-10	11
16	OFK Bor 1919	14	2	2	10	-20	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is TSC Backa Topola win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.