TSC Backa Topola vs Metalac GM Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.48 expected goals for TSC Backa Topola and 0.96 for Metalac GM, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives TSC Backa Topola the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

TSC Backa Topola win

70.6% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.48 – 0.96

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

TSC Backa Topola home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Metalac GM away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TSC Backa Topola to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 17% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.48 goals for TSC Backa Topola and 0.96 for Metalac GM, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

TSC Backa Topola win71%

Draw17%

Metalac GM win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

2–09.9%
2–19.5%
3–08.2%
1–08.0%
3–17.8%

Recent form

TSC Backa Topola

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Bor 1919 · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grafičar · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Borac Cacak · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dubočica · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftagas · 1-1 (D)

Metalac GM

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Teleoptik · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Vršac · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Bor 1919 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grafičar · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Borac Cacak · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Prva Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	TSC Backa Topola	15	9	6	0	19	33
2	Javor	15	8	6	1	19	30
3	Borac Cacak	15	9	3	3	7	30
4	OFK Vršac	15	8	2	5	4	26
5	Semendrija 1924	15	7	4	4	6	25
6	Dubočica	15	6	4	5	-1	22
7	Napredak	15	6	4	5	-1	22
8	Loznica	15	4	8	3	-2	20
9	FK Vozdovac	15	5	4	6	1	19
10	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	15	5	4	6	-4	19
11	Naftagas	15	4	6	5	5	18
12	Metalac GM	15	5	3	7	-4	18
13	Jedinstvo Ub	15	4	2	9	-8	14
14	Teleoptik	15	3	4	8	-8	13
15	Grafičar	15	3	2	10	-11	11
16	OFK Bor 1919	15	2	2	11	-22	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is TSC Backa Topola win, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.