· Analysis updated 19:50 UTC
Tsirang vs Thimphu City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Tsirang and 3.13 for Thimphu City, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Thimphu City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Thimphu City win
80.4% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 3.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tsirang home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thimphu City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–38.9%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–38.2%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–46.9%
Recent form
Tsirang
- 2026-09-22T09:00:00.000Z · A vs RTC · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-16T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Thimphu · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Paro · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tensung · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bhutan U19 · 5-5 (D)
Thimphu City
- 2026-10-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Transport United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bhutan U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ugyen Academy · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs RTC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T10:05:00.000Z · Tsirang 1-1 Thimphu City (Premier League)
- 2026-07-04T12:00:00.000Z · Tsirang 1-2 Thimphu City (Premier League)
- 2025-08-03T10:00:00.000Z · Tsirang 3-5 Thimphu City (Premier League)
- 2025-04-22T12:00:00.000Z · Tsirang 0-3 Thimphu City (Premier League)
- 2024-09-01T12:00:00.000Z · Tsirang 0-7 Thimphu City (Premier League)
- 2024-06-22T10:00:00.000Z · Tsirang 2-2 Thimphu City (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paro | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 62 | 49 |
| 2 | Thimphu City | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 40 |
| 3 | Thimphu | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 32 |
| 4 | Transport United | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | RTC | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 28 |
| 6 | Drukpa | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Bhutan U19 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -16 | 20 |
| 8 | Tsirang | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -21 | 16 |
| 9 | Tensung | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | -39 | 8 |
| 10 | Ugyen Academy | 18 | 2 | 1 | 15 | -46 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Thimphu City win, at 80.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.