TSU Matrei vs Grafenstein Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for TSU Matrei and 1.37 for Grafenstein, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives TSU Matrei the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.46 – 1.37

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

TSU Matrei home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grafenstein away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TSU Matrei to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for TSU Matrei and 1.37 for Grafenstein, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

TSU Matrei win40%

Draw25%

Grafenstein win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.8%
2–18.6%
1–08.6%
1–28.1%
0–18.0%

Recent form

TSU Matrei

2026-06-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SAK Klagenfurt · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria Klagenfurt II · 3-0 (W)
2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Veit / Glan · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Grafenstein · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nußdorf · 1-0 (W)

Grafenstein

2026-06-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dellach im Gailtal · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-31T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Völkermarkt · 3-5 (L)
2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferlach · 5-0 (W)
2026-05-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs TSU Matrei · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolfsberg · 3-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Landesliga - Karnten table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Donau Klagenfurt	28	16	7	5	27	55
2	Wolfsberg	28	16	5	7	28	53
3	Lendorf	28	16	5	7	16	53
4	Völkermarkt	28	16	4	8	24	52
5	Bleiburg	29	14	6	9	6	48
6	St. Veit / Glan	28	12	6	10	9	42
7	Dellach im Gailtal	28	11	7	10	7	40
8	Grafenstein	28	11	7	10	5	40
9	TSU Matrei	29	11	5	13	-2	38
10	Austria Klagenfurt II	29	9	10	10	-5	37
11	SAK Klagenfurt	28	8	10	10	2	34
12	Köttmannsdorf	29	8	7	14	-12	31
13	KAC	28	6	11	11	-9	29
14	Spittal	28	6	8	14	-25	26
15	Ferlach	28	6	8	14	-34	26
16	Nußdorf	28	6	2	20	-37	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.