Profertil Arena · Referee Markus Greinecker · Analysis updated 16:09 UTC
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.17 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives TSV Hartberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
TSV Hartberg home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Austria Lustenau away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 49.3% vs market 42.4%, edge +6.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.4% | 49.3% | 2.03 | +6.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.6% | 73.1% | 1.37 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.8% | 26.9% | 3.72 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.80 | 32.6% | 32.7% | 3.06 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 67.4% | 67.3% | 1.49 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 40.6% | 40.4% | 2.48 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 60.1% | 59.6% | 1.68 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 50.7% | 1.97 | -6.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
TSV Hartberg
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Lustenau · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Kapfenberg · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs WSG Wattens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 4-0 (W)
Austria Lustenau
- 2026-09-24T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Vienna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Lafnitz · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs WSG Wattens · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 4-3 Austria Lustenau (Bundesliga)
- 2024-10-29T18:00:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 3-0 Austria Lustenau (Cup)
- 2023-10-29T13:30:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 4-0 Austria Lustenau (Bundesliga)
- 2023-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 2-2 Austria Lustenau (Bundesliga)
- 2023-06-02T17:30:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 1-5 Austria Lustenau (Bundesliga)
- 2023-03-31T17:30:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 0-1 Austria Lustenau (Bundesliga)
- 2022-11-05T16:00:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 1-1 Austria Lustenau (Bundesliga)
- 2022-08-14T15:00:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 1-4 Austria Lustenau (Bundesliga)
- 2018-05-25T17:30:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 2-0 Austria Lustenau (2. Liga)
- 2018-04-06T16:30:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 4-0 Austria Lustenau (2. Liga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 9 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 11 | SCR Altach | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.