· Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
TSV Hartberg vs First Vienna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.60 for First Vienna, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives TSV Hartberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
TSV Hartberg win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
TSV Hartberg home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
First Vienna away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TSV Hartberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.60 for First Vienna, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.7%
Recent form
TSV Hartberg
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Lustenau · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Kapfenberg · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs WSG Wattens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 4-0 (W)
First Vienna
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs WSPG Wels · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapid Wien II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Salzburg · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SKU Amstetten · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Admira Wacker · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is TSV Hartberg win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.