Profertil Arena · Referee Safak Barmaksiz, Austria · Analysis updated 20:40 UTC
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.95 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Lask Linz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lask Linz win
68.2% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
TSV Hartberg home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lask Linz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.5%
- 0–214.1%
- 1–19.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–39.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 59.0% vs market 44.3%, edge +14.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 59.0% | 1.69 | +14.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.08 | 87.9% | 88.5% | 1.13 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.60 | 20.1% | 20.3% | 4.93 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 3.00 | 31.6% | 31.8% | 3.14 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 8.00 | 11.5% | 11.5% | 8.70 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 1.35 | 68.4% | 68.2% | 1.47 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 80.5% | 79.7% | 1.25 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -14.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
TSV Hartberg
- 2026-09-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Kapfenberg · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs WSG Wattens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ried · 3-2 (W)
Lask Linz
- 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · H vs First Vienna · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs TSV Hartberg · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Deutschlandsberger SC · 6-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 3-3 Lask Linz (Bundesliga)
- 2026-04-26T12:30:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz (Bundesliga)
- 2026-03-13T18:30:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 0-0 Lask Linz (Bundesliga)
- 2025-12-06T16:00:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 2-2 Lask Linz (Bundesliga)
- 2025-10-05T12:30:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 3-3 Lask Linz (Bundesliga)
- 2025-05-26T17:00:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 0-2 Lask Linz (Bundesliga)
- 2025-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 0-0 Lask Linz (Bundesliga)
- 2025-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 0-1 Lask Linz (Bundesliga)
- 2024-11-02T16:00:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 1-1 Lask Linz (Bundesliga)
- 2024-08-03T15:00:00.000Z · TSV Hartberg 1-2 Lask Linz (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Sturm Graz | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 6 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 9 |
| 7 | TSV Hartberg | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 12 | SCR Altach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lask Linz win, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.