TSV St. Johann vs Kuchl Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for TSV St. Johann and 2.00 for Kuchl, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Kuchl the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kuchl win

49.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

TSV St. Johann home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kuchl away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

TSV St. Johann win29%

Draw22%

Kuchl win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.1%
1–29.1%
2–16.8%
2–26.8%
1–36.0%

Recent form

TSV St. Johann

2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Wohnbau Dietach · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wallern / Marienkirchen · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Pinzgau Saalfelden · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kuchl · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · H vs LASK Juniors · 2-0 (W)

Kuchl

2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Grödig · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Vorwarts Steyr · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Leonfelden · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bad Schallerbach · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs UFC Hallein · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · TSV St. Johann 0-2 Kuchl (Regionalliga - North)
2026-04-02T17:45:00.000Z · TSV St. Johann 0-2 Kuchl (Regionalliga - West)
2025-08-29T17:30:00.000Z · TSV St. Johann 0-3 Kuchl (Regionalliga - West)
2025-05-28T17:30:00.000Z · TSV St. Johann 1-3 Kuchl (Regionalliga - West)
2024-10-25T17:30:00.000Z · TSV St. Johann 3-5 Kuchl (Regionalliga - West)
2023-05-29T16:00:00.000Z · TSV St. Johann 5-2 Kuchl (Regionalliga - Salzburg)
2023-04-28T17:00:00.000Z · TSV St. Johann 2-1 Kuchl (Regionalliga - Salzburg)
2022-10-07T17:00:00.000Z · TSV St. Johann 1-0 Kuchl (Regionalliga - Salzburg)
2022-08-05T17:30:00.000Z · TSV St. Johann 1-1 Kuchl (Regionalliga - Salzburg)
2021-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · TSV St. Johann 0-3 Kuchl (Regionalliga - Salzburg)

Regionalliga - North table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wallern / Marienkirchen	13	9	1	3	21	28
2	LASK Juniors	13	8	3	2	28	27
3	Wals-Grünau	13	7	5	1	11	26
4	Gurten	14	7	3	4	7	24
5	Kuchl	13	6	3	4	1	21
6	Bad Schallerbach	13	5	4	4	7	19
7	Grödig	13	6	1	6	0	19
8	SK Vorwarts Steyr	13	5	3	5	1	18
9	Leonfelden	13	4	5	4	-2	17
10	TSV St. Johann	13	4	4	5	-5	16
11	Ried II	13	4	2	7	-14	14
12	Seekirchen	13	3	4	6	-7	13
13	UFC Hallein	13	3	3	7	-13	12
14	Wohnbau Dietach	13	3	3	7	-17	12
15	Pinzgau Saalfelden	13	1	2	10	-18	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kuchl win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.