TSV St. Johann vs LASK Juniors Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for TSV St. Johann and 2.24 for LASK Juniors, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives LASK Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

LASK Juniors win

67.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.90 – 2.24

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

TSV St. Johann home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
LASK Juniors away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates LASK Juniors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 14% / 19% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for TSV St. Johann and 2.24 for LASK Juniors, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

TSV St. Johann win14%

Draw19%

LASK Juniors win68%

Double chance 1X

32%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

86%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

0–210.8%
1–29.8%
0–19.7%
1–18.7%
0–38.1%

Recent form

TSV St. Johann

2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Wohnbau Dietach · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wallern / Marienkirchen · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Pinzgau Saalfelden · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kuchl · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · H vs LASK Juniors · 2-0 (W)

LASK Juniors

2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gurten · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ried II · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-15T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Wals-Grünau · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Seekirchen · 8-0 (W)
2026-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · A vs TSV St. Johann · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - North table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wallern / Marienkirchen	13	9	1	3	21	28
2	LASK Juniors	13	8	3	2	28	27
3	Wals-Grünau	13	7	5	1	11	26
4	Gurten	14	7	3	4	7	24
5	Kuchl	13	6	3	4	1	21
6	Bad Schallerbach	13	5	4	4	7	19
7	Grödig	13	6	1	6	0	19
8	SK Vorwarts Steyr	13	5	3	5	1	18
9	Leonfelden	13	4	5	4	-2	17
10	TSV St. Johann	13	4	4	5	-5	16
11	Ried II	13	4	2	7	-14	14
12	Seekirchen	13	3	4	6	-7	13
13	UFC Hallein	13	3	3	7	-13	12
14	Wohnbau Dietach	13	3	3	7	-17	12
15	Pinzgau Saalfelden	13	1	2	10	-18	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is LASK Juniors win, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.